A Dynamic Hurricane Risk Modeling Framework to Improve Bridge Safety under Changing Climate

University

Missouri University of Science & Technology

Principal Investigator

Guirong (Grace) Yan (yang@mst.edu)

Total Project Cost

$135,632

Funding Type

2016 USDOT

Start Date

2/1/2022

End Date

6/30/2024

Agency ID or Contract Number

69A3551747107

Abstract

Global warming has caused climate change, leading to more severe winds and storms and threating the safety of bridges in coastal regions. In order for local governments to take pro-active adaptations and measures, it is essential to understand the local impact of global climate change. To address this, this project will develop a new, efficient hurricane wind model and then develop a new, dynamic hurricane risk modeling framework that can reflect climate change. This will inform decision-makers when they develop near-term measures and long-term plans for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Objective

To respond to increasing natural disasters due to climate change, this project will develop a new, efficient hurricane wind model and then develop a new, dynamic hurricane risk modeling framework that can reflect climate change. To achieve this research goal, the following two research tasks have been planned. First, by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of existing parametric TC models for engineering applications, this project will develop a high-fidelity, computationally efficient three-dimensional nonlinear TC model that can consider the varying land cover and terrains without too much simplification of the kinetic equations. Second, the developed hurricane wind model will be used to generate a great number of synthetic hurricanes to develop a hurricane risk model that can reflect the changing climate.

Impacts/Benefits

The predicted hurricane intensity can be used to improve the AASHTO Bridge Design Specifications periodically to accommodate the future climate change, enhancing the resilience of bridges. The predicted hurricane intensity can also be used to evaluate the vulnerability of existing bridges, and to develop a reinforcing strategy for existing bridges to adapt to future climate change. This research will eventually advance the design theory of highway or railroad bridges based on the in-depth understanding of future hurricanes in the changing climate. The results will inform decision-makers when they develop near-term measures and long-term plans for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Deliverables

Download the Final Report

Related Phases Phase I: Investigation of Wind Effects on Bridges Induced by Tornadoes for Tornado-Resistance Design – Phase I

Phase II: Investigation of Wind Effects on Bridges Induced by Tornadoes for Tornado-Resistant Design - Phase II

Phase III: Understanding of Bridge Vulnerability to Climate Change Enables Pro-active Adaptation Measures